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白銀翻譯公司關鍵字：The expected impact of RMB appreciation, international short-term capital (also called the international hot money, which is often in the international or domestic financial markets quickly transferred between the withdrawal of short-term capital, to earn a high profit goal of "hot money"), CP scale into China. People's Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said, China's central bank have the ability to hedge, "hot money" due to money supply growth. If you want this speculation, the possibility of failure is great.
National Bureau of Statistics figures show that, as of the end of June this year, China's reserves rushed to the highest point in history, reaching $ 346.5 billion, compared with late last year jumped by $ 60.1 billion, the overall size of the second largest in the world after Japan.
In the absence of capital market liberalization and RMB convertibility in the case, the main channel of foreign exchange inflows into China is the trade surplus and foreign direct investment. According to the National Bureau of Statistics figures, the first half of this year China's trade surplus was 45 billion U.S. dollars, foreign direct investment of 303 billion dollars. Researcher Wang China Society of Macroeconomics analysis, the first half of China's foreign exchange reserves increased by the normal situation should be about $ 35 billion, it is actually far more than that figure.
"China's foreign exchange reserves of $ 25 billion gap exists, is an unprecedented thing." Wang on the "Beijing Review" analysis "to analyze the current situation, this gap is likely to flow into China through various channels, waiting for RMB appreciation arbitrage capital (hot money). " Equivalent to about $ 25 billion last year, China actually used 52.7 billion U.S. dollars of foreign capital to 50%.
"$ 25 billion of hot money from the public statistical data analysis, the results, in fact, if the write-off flight with those implied by such funds 'hot money', I estimate the scale of hot money in China is probably one hundred million U.S. dollars in the 350-400 between. "State Information Center, senior economist Chen star of the" Beijing Review "analysis.
"From the end use of funds, the current international finance is also difficult to specifically define what is 'hot money', so, how much hot money in China is in the end I am afraid that no one can say." National Development and Reform Commission of Foreign Economic Research Institute Research Assistant Qu Feng-jie, "Beijing Review" said, "should be recognized in China does exist a certain amount of hot money, but because China is still a strict foreign exchange management system, so I personally believe that China's current scale of hot money may not be widely guess so much. "
Mainly affected by the expected impact of RMB appreciationChen explained that the star of the 1997 Asian financial crisis, the international market for the expected depreciation of the RMB widespread, affected by, China's domestic capital outflow has been a few years ago, the state foreign exchange control departments has been to prevent and combat capital flight as the focus of the work.
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