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海西翻譯公司關鍵字：Ct = at + bt Yt + ct-1 At-1 -----------------------------------( 9) Which, Ct for the first period t consumption; Yt income for the first period t; At-1 for the first t-1 period of the assets owned by the consumer; at spontaneous consumption for the first period t; bt income for the first phase of t consumption elasticity. ct-1 for the first period t-1 assets on consumption elasticity.
Because the statistics are not very complete, it was difficult to tell the exact number of Chinese residents in assets, but close to the estimate made is still possible. Here, we try to residents by domestic scholars estimate the number of assets value, the use of (9) made of current consumption and lagged income residents of assets in a regression analysis, the results shown in Table 5:
Table 5: Consumption of current income and assets of residents of a lag regression analysisYear abc R2 SE D1980-19911992-2002178.17 0.933 -0.0763 1.000 3.7558 2.530(5.915) (40.344) (-7.488)2369.017 1615.1567 1.473 0.874 -0.127 0.977(0.672) (3.692) (-3.001)Regression analysis showed that: the current period income effect on consumption is still high; on the stock of assets for the current period consumption of the residents have little effect, is negative (c <0) ,1980-1991, the residents of assets for every 1% increase in consumption fell 0.0763%; 1992-2002 residents each 1% increase in assets, consumption fell by 0.127%. This shows that residents are not on the period due to the increase in assets show a "wealth effect" to increase current consumption, on the contrary reduce current consumption, which should include savings, securities, including the residents of the growing stock of assets savings can not be converted into consumption. From a life cycle perspective assumed, expected future consumption should be a great people, so the recent increase in the stock of assets, including savings to smooth future consumption. This should be the reform and opening up, increasing the uncertainty of income, the traditional Chinese "save money for old age" consciousness and developed for consumer credit.VI ConclusionMainstream economic theory combined with the above empirical analysis of quantitative discussion of the Chinese factor determined by the income because of insufficient consumer demand. From the analysis, we can find, in addition to factors other than the revenue impact of China's consumer demand factors (housing reform, education reform, state enterprise reform, social security reform, etc.) of the explanatory power is increased, mainly due to its economic reform by institutional changes brought about due to the uncertainty of future expectations. Since the old economic system "broken" is greater than the speed of the new economic system "up" the speed of the original system, the expected formation of a stable equilibrium is broken, the new system has not been fully established, the residents have not yet reached the new system is expected to equilibrium, so the Chinese economic reform of the negative impact on consumer demand a larger role. Figure 1:
SFSF2SFD E1 SE0 AB Sf00 C1 C0 C0 'C2 C expectedFigure 1: The economic impact of reform on the mechanism of consumer demandAbscissa C expected on behalf of individual residents affected by the economic reforms the future expected consumption; the vertical axis on behalf of individual residents of SF from the established economic system gains expectations; SF1 line represents the traditional economic system, for different residents, with the system from the traditional economic benefits expected to get higher, the smaller the expected future consumption, ie the greater the current consumption. SF1 in the traditional economic system, the individual residents to obtain the expected value of benefits determined Sf0 point B line, its intersection with SF1 system equilibrium point E0 determines the expected consumption for the C0, as the traditional economy is expected to bring benefits to residents certainty and stability, C0 is stable, fluctuating little. With the deepening of economic reform, the traditional economic system is broken, SF1 SF2 began to move the system in the new economic system has not been fully built up, or individual residents not adapt to the new economic system before the formation of the original economic system earnings expectations and the new economic system SF2 Sf0 intersect at point A is expected to decide the future of residents consumption C0 ', line C0 C0' on behalf of residents of the added value of expected future consumption, so the residents in the transitional stage of economic reform, reducing the current consumption, increase savings.
When the new economic system has been improved and residents have to adapt to new economic system, the residents will reap the benefits from the new economic system, the expected value adjusted upward from point B to point D to point E or down to adjust the formation of new, stable earnings expectations Sf1, Sf2, then Sf1, Sf2 intersection with the formation of the new economic system equilibrium point E1 and E2, the impact of economic reform on consumption will stabilize. The system is in equilibrium E1 or E2 depending on the efficiency and effectiveness of economic reform. If economic reform effectively improve people's expectations about the future from the new economic system to get the expected return is greater than the old economic system in the expected return, then the system will remain in equilibrium E1, and vice versa in E2.
Therefore, it can be expected that: the economic impact of reform on consumer demand is transitional in nature, with its perfect with the residents of the new economic system to improve fitness, consumer demand will be affected by the impact of economic reform to stabilize. Our policy recommendations here are: to enhance consumer demand in the short term, the use of policy measures "do everything possible to increase income"; the long run, improve the efficiency and effectiveness of economic reform will continue to decline in consumer demand (expected future consumption from C0 'to C2) or pick-up (future expected consumption from C0' to C1) and stabilized.
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